May 21, 2013 by downthe18th

BMW PGA Championship 2013

Finally after 78 rounds of golf on the European Tour, it is the turn of England to host what will be the flagship event this season. The BMW PGA Championship has a rich history and the Wentworth Club in Surrey is a course that has held the Ryder Cup and constantly attracts the best from the continent. Whatever the motives of the “PGA exiles” may be (money, closer to home, historic event) it should not matter because it will be a week of pure golf. And for all UK residents, you get to watch it on terrestrial T.V. listening to the dulcet tones of Peter Alliss. Bliss.

A glorious finishing hole, with water in the way

The course itself is a 7,302 yard par 72 and has often been described as a long-hitters track, but Luke Donald has won twice in a row and put pay to that theory. With relatively spacious fairways, you can understand why a bomber could do well here, but if you are completely reckless and constantly find the thick stuff, birdies will be hard to come by. Course resident Ernie Els has made the course more difficult, meaning good ball strikers and ‘thinkers’ will prevail. But the greatest challenge will come with the weather, as there is expected to be tough winds before the cut on Saturday. Anyone who can handle the pressures of a prestigious event alongside torrid weather will be at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

PLUS many bookmakers are offering 6 places this week, so it would be foolish not to get involved. Check out who has the best odds and offers via Oddschecker.

We must note that the ‘top boys’, i.e the Donalds, Rose’, Westwoods etc are pretty much untouchable at their odds, so we are looking elsewhere, but we really feel there is value further down the field! Also, the British media will be going barmy and most probably biased for the English contingent; therefore we have kept a real impartial view at the whole field.

Don’t forget to check out our Crowne Plaza Invitational preview!

Martin Kaymer (33/1 various)

Could need that snood this week…

The former world number 1 had a well-documented nightmare for much of last season before pulling off the winning putt in the Ryder Cup at the backend of the year. Beginning the 2013 season, there was hope he would continue from that and push on back up the rankings and although he hasn’t excelled, there has been signs of the talent we all know he has. 4 top 10s this year have shown that and last week at the Byron Nelson his T5 finish was a joy to watch; the ball striking was back and formidable iron play looked to good to go unnoticed this week. He shot 4 rounds in the 60s and considering he was T55 in putting for the week, he could have challenged further. He ended T11 in GIR and T13 for driving accuracy, whilst averaging 299 yards off the tee, all of which will be a lethal combination for Wentworth. Now, he may not have a top 10 here yet but his T15 last year should have perhaps been better, but his poor form and awful putting put pay to any chances of a win. There are few better when the German is full flow and if he can get his putter going, he could genuinely run away with this.

Branden Grace (55/1 StanJames)

Grace is the first of our South Africans who we fancy this week and when you think of his calibre, 55s is a very high price. His first trip to Wentworth last year ended with a finish for 5^th, in what was a very solid performance tee to green, no lower than 36^th in any stat across the board. Admittedly his outstanding form last year has not been reciprocated into 2013, but trips over to the PGA have not helped matters, playing in many new tournaments and surroundings. He still finished T18 at the Masters and last week, back in Europe, got to the semi-finals at the match play. He began to look back to what he produced in 2012 and at a course that does suit; he really could prove to be good value. He currently lies 29^th in driving distance on the European Tour and 38^th Stateside, 34^th in stroke average and 23^rd in one putts in Europe. Plus, if the wind blows we are sure he will be able to handle it, as he is a ready-made links player, whose putting can keep him out of trouble at the crucial times.

Richard Sterne (66/1 Coral)

Sterne with the Joburg Trophy, he will want to get his paws on another

Our second South African comes in the form of Richard Sterne, who has had a superb 2013 so far. He won in Johannesburg back in February and barring a MC at the RBC Heritage, his worst finish is T25…at the Masters. What is really encouraging though is the fact that his only appearance at Wentworth was last year where he ended in 6^th, in a performance that averaged only 259 yards off the tee. Even his driving accuracy was poor, which shows how well he played with his irons and around the green. But going into the tournament this year he is averaging 295 yards and over 62% accuracy, which could be an interesting recipe for success. He is also 19^th in GIR, 2^nd in stroke average, 4^th putts per GIR, 14^th in putts per round and 40^th in scrambling. Basically the guy loves it when he is shooting into the green and once he is there, you can trust him to find his putts. Lets hope he produces a stern performance…

David Horsey (70/1 StanJames)

You look at the ball David

Without wanting to contradict ourselves from earlier, it would not be right to exclude every Englishman would it? David Horsey is an outsider that we have followed throughout the European season and he could upset the home nation applecart this week. Firstly, he is an excellent wind player; a battler in every condition who produced a superb performance in Morocco to end T2, in what was horrendous weather for a couple of days. That finish was in the middle of what is a great run for the lad from Stockport, with a T6 before and T4 in Spain after. He will be buzzing to get out onto a course he had a T7 finish at back in 2011, in which he really could of placed higher had it not been for a 73 on the Saturday. The conditions in 2011 could be similar this year and with an even tougher course laid out, Horsey will thrive. He currently lies in 34^th in driving accuracy, 30^th in putts per GIR, 38^th putts per round and 55^th for scrambling. Basically, if you want to steer clear of Westwood, Rose et al and fancy an English outsider, Horsey is your man!

Thomas Aiken (100/1 StanJames)

Our third South African is a man who is in glorious form of late. Aiken won the Avantha Masters in March at an absolute canter, before a T11 in tough conditions the following week and a semi-final appearance at the match play last week. Considering such high odds, it seemed foolish not to jump on him, when we have seen him as low as 16s previously. (Understandably without the stellar field on show this week) He is currently 16^th for stroke average, 44^th in driving distance, 11^th in GIR, 51^st putts per GIR and 18^th in driving accuracy. And looking back to his T10 finish here in 2009, his driving accuracy was horrendous, finishing 59^th in the field for the week, so if he brings his on-fire game to the course, he could be well worth a punt, especially at such high odds. For all-round stats, you will not find someone better than the South African.

Quick mention to 48-year-old James Kingston who can be found at a staggering 300/1 by some bookmakers. The fourth South African we looked at has been playing well of late and considering he has finished T6 here 3 years ago, if you have a few spare pennies, don’t waste them on the lottery, waste them on Kingston. 16^th driving accuracy, 23^rd stroke average, 12^th putts per round and 16^th in scrambling are all stats that make you sit up and take notice. He also won on his last outing…

Go on James, more fist pumping at 300/1 please.

May 20, 2013 by downthe18th

Crowne Plaza Invitational 2013

After Sang-Moon Bae impressively walked away with the Byron Nelson Championship a few days ago and with it his maiden PGA Tour title, we move onto the 4^th Texan event on the PGA Tour in 2013. The Crowne Plaza Invitational played at the historic Colonial Country Club is one of only five tournaments that have invitational status, which shows you the high regard this event is held in. If you are wondering about all the talk surrounding the late Ben Hogan, he won this tournament five times and considered Colonial to be his home course.

Colonial – A place of great tradition

Colonial itself does have a bit of a major feel as it is a challenge to all parts of your game, with tight fairways, a few doglegs thrown in and small bentgrass greens. The course is a par 70 and will be playing 7,204 yards this week. Some have compared this tournament to the Open Championship for the sort of test it does give you. The kind of golfers that have done well here in previous years tells you what sort of course it is with Zach Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Matt Kuchar and Jim Furyk all either winning or coming close to doing so. With many of Europe’s top golfers over in England for the BMW PGA Championship (See our preview) it will give one of the lower ranked players a chance this week. The highest ranked player in the field is WGC Accenture Match Play winner Matt Kuchar, who comes in ranked 12.

A recurring theme of late seems to be accuracy off the tee and this week is no different. The big hitters will have no real advantage off the tee. Getting the ball in play and giving yourself chances is paramount. Putting as well will be key. Greens in regulation are nice but if the short stick isn’t working they count for nothing. Just ask Charl Schwartzel last week. He ranked 1^st in GIR at the Byron Nelson but still ended up finishing 3^rd when he should have won quite comfortably! Last year, winner Zach Johnson ranked T37 in GIR but 1^st in putts per round and 2^nd in putts per GIR. This event will be won and lost on the greens.

Harris English (50/1 Stan James)

The 23 year old really impresses us this week

Now this is a bold 1^st pick from us this week, but we really, really fancy English! We’ll start with his current form, which reads 6^th, 33^rd and 17^th most recently. That finish last week did not do justice to how well Harris played over the first 3 days, and but for a +4 on the last day, the tournament could well have been his. So he will be wanting to put things right this week. At the Byron Nelson he ranked T30 in driving accuracy, T35 in GIR and a really nice T6 in putting average. It was his efforts with his short stick that really made us want him as out 1^st pick, as we have said the tournament will be won and lost on the greens. Some say this event is not one for the younger generation, but Harris came here first time out and finished 5^th last year. And his form leading up to it was nothing short of awful on the PGA Tour. This year he enters with confidence at an all-time high and the smell of that maiden PGA Tour victory in his nostrils.

Tim Clark (50/1 SkyBet)

For someone of the South African’s ability, we really do think we would be mad to miss out on such high odds! He really took our fancy when researching for the US Open in a few weeks (Our preview is now available) as he is a player who will keep the ball in play and regularly have birdie opportunities. Then we saw his course form at Colonial! Clark came runner up two years consecutively back in 08 and 09, so he will want to put those bad memories to rest. Last year he finished 19^th showing he still has what it takes to play well around this vintage course. It is also said a good finish at the Masters will hold you in good stead this week, and Tim finished a very respectable T11. His statistics are incredibly suited for this course, 3^rd in driving accuracy, 38^th sand saves, 29^th proximity to the hole, 36^th total putting and 48^th scrambling. A great bet for such high odds this week.

Hunter Mahan (40/1 Paddy Power)

Hunter a few weeks back hit one of the worst spells of his career which turned many people, including ourselves, right off him. But fear not, Mahan has been on the range and working with his coach and the results are paying off. The American looked really good 2 weeks ago at the Players where a 19^th place finish did not do him justice. We watched all 4 days and Mahan was always in with a shout, of course till Tiger showed up. But as courses go that Hunter is suited for, this is right up there. He loves course management and plotting his way around, which is exactly what you need this week. His last two performances here have been 10^th and 37^th, which is more than respectable. He finds himself 32^nd in driving accuracy, 8^th in total driving, 18^th ball striking, 1^st in GIR 75-100 yards and 51^st strokes gained putting. For someone of his quality, 40/1 in a field weaker than usual is too good to miss, so get on Mahan this week. We love his acting as well by the way…

John Huh (45/1 Bet365)

Now we apologise in advance for backing him purely because his last name always draws a laugh whenever you say it. The film Rush Hour always pops into our heads… For someone who is only 22, his performances have stayed under the radar somewhat and perhaps deserves more credit for what he has done. Just like English, on his maiden appearance here last year he also finished 5^th, which is some going on a tough course. John definitely likes to manipulate his way around the course, something perhaps lacking from the younger generation with many just wanting to ‘bomb’ it off the tee. Like with all our picks, the statistics are really good for this course. 31^st driving accuracy, 26^th scrambling and 56^th putting 15-25’. But just like English again, his performance at the Byron Nelson is what really convinced us. His T8 finish was really good to watch, he ranked T4 in driving accuracy, T3 in GIR, T14 in sand saves and T15 in putts per GIR. He is definitely peaking at the right time entering Colonial.

Josh Teater (200/1 Sky Bet)

Teater-ing on the edge of greatness?

We are writing this on Monday night and as we do, Josh Teater currently leads the British Open Qualifier at Gleneagles Country Club by 1 shot over Luke Guthrie. By all accounts Teater played some stunning golf in round one to post a -6 64 in very windy conditions. Now all being well Teater will continue to play well and carry that form onto Colonial! He will be buzzing with confidence after booking his place at this year’s open at Muirfield in July. We would also advise to jump on him while his odds are that high, because once word gets out about his performance at the qualifier, his odds will shoot down. His form before that on the PGA Tour is mixed, but he has made both of his last two cuts. And before making the cut here last year, he did in fact finish 16^th in 2011. So maybe it is this time of year he loves! His statistics for someone at high odds are really respectable, 22^nd total driving, 22^nd all round ranking, 48^th GIR, 17^th total birdies, 25^th ball striking and 54^th in total putting. A cheeky shout this week at 200/1.

Quick Mention

This week marks the start of the 1^st of five majors on the Champions Tour. The US Senior PGA Championship is always a great watch and we have had a look through to see if anyone would catch our eye. And they did! So if you are a gambling man, have a look at these 3 selections.

Rocco Mediate (20/1 Stan James)

Bart Bryant (50/1 Paddy Power)

Ian Woosnam (150/1 Paddy Power)

We love you ‘Woosie’

May 18, 2013 by downthe18th

US Open 2013 Preview

Published 18/05/2013

Tournament: US Open 2013

Location: Ardmore, Pennsylvania

Course: Merion Golf Club (East Course)

Distance: 6,996 yards

Current Champion: Webb Simpson

Dates: June 13 – 16

The second major of 2013 is only 4 weeks away and as we did with The Masters, we have decided to publish the ‘1-month’ preview.

This years US Open will be played at Merion Golf Club (East course) in Philadelphia and for the first time since 2004, the distance will be under 7,000 yards, making it a very different challenge for all the players.

16th at Merion

The average driving distance on tour this year is 290 yards, therefore we will do a calculation of what yardage could potentially be left from the average drive on the par 4s.

Here is a run through of the 18 holes –

No. 1 – Par 4 – 350 yards – 60 yards left
No. 2 – Par 5 – 556 yards
No. 3 – Par 3 – 256 yards
No. 4 – Par 5 – 628 yards
No. 5 – Par 4 – 504 yards – 214 yards left
No. 6 – Par 4 – 487 yards – 197 yards left
No. 7 – Par 4 – 360 yards – 70 yards left
No. 8 – Par 4 – 359 yards – 69 yards left
No. 9 – Par 3 – 236 yards
Out – Par 36 – 3,736 yards
No. 10 – Par 4 – 303 yards – 13 yards left
No. 11 – Par 4 – 367 yards – 77 yards left
No. 12 – Par 4 – 403 yards – 113 yards left
No. 13 – Par 3 – 115 yards
No. 14 – Par 4 – 464 yards – 174 yards left
No. 15 – Par 4 – 411 yards – 121 yards left
No. 16 – Par 4 – 430 yards – 140 yards left
No. 17 – Par 3 – 246 yards
No. 18 – Par 4 – 521 yards – 231 yards left
In – Par 34 – 3,260 yards
Total – Par 70 – 6,996 yards

From this you can ascertain that the key areas will be approach shots inside 100 yards and between 125-150 yards. (approx.) Basically, the golfer who is solid with a short iron will prosper at Merion.

The course itself has very tight fairways, so accuracy off the tee is arguably the most crucial asset to have. Accuracy will also be vital when going for the green with hazards surrounding pretty much every hole, bringing into play proximity to the pin. One miscalculation can be the difference between birdie and bogey – not to mention the undulating greens which will play consistently hard throughout the week. As always the short stick gurus will end up near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday on these tough greens.

It is likely every player will miss several greens throughout the four days, meaning anyone who can scramble will give themselves a chance as well.

After doing more extensive research, we found and calculated several trends that past US winners have had – and here they are.

17 of the last 18 U.S. Open winners had made at least two previous U.S. Open starts.

41 of the last 43 U.S. Open winners had a top-10 finish on the PGA Tour that year.

The past 9 U.S. Open winners made the cut in the previous year’s British Open.

16 of the past 19 U.S. Open winners had a previous top-14 U.S. Open finish.

8 of the last 11 US Open champions made the cut at that years Masters

Therefore, we have created a table of the 19 golfers who met the above criteria and have included what we feel will be the key stats for the week. (Even though Jason Day, Henrik Stenson, Ryan Moore and Robert Garrigus did not play in the Open and Geoff Ogilvy did not play in the Masters it seemed rather unfair to exclude them because they have all had a top 10 US Open finish in recent years.)

We have also researched all the tournament stats we could find (7/11) since 2012 that played under 7,100 yards, which gave for some interesting reading.

The winner of these 7 tournaments under 7,100 yards has on average been 14^th in driving accuracy. (So we will be looking at the top 30 in this category)

The winner of these 7 tournaments under 7,100 yards has on average been 10^th in GIR. (So we will be looking at the top 40 in this category).

The winner of these 7 tournaments under 7,100 yards has on average been 16^th in strokes gained putting. (So we will be looking at the top 40 in this category).

So, with all of this in mind, what are we actually looking for?

Top 30 driving accuracy
Top 40 GIR
Top 40 strokes gained putting
Top 50 ball striking (computed by totaling a player’s rank in both total driving and GIR)
Top 40 approach 125-150 yards
Top 40 approach inside 100 yards
Top 30 proximity to the hole
Top 30 scoring average
Top 30 sand save %
Top 30 scrambling
Top 30 strokes gained putting
Top 30 putts per round

Anyone who meets the above criteria we will highlight their stats in green.

As you can see, one of our favourite players Brandt Snedeker is the perfect fit as he ticks 10 out of the 11 categories. You can currently get him at 25/1 with various bookmakers if you are interested in a cheeky ante post bet.

Two more golfers that we like and fit over 50% of the categories are:

Steve Stricker (50/1 Various)

Matt Kuchar ( 40/1 William Hill)

Also below we have a table of players who did not meet the original trends however their stats were just too good to ignore! Take a look.

We will follow this up with preview number 2 in a couple of weeks, hope you enjoy!

May 14, 2013 by downthe18th

Volvo World Match Play Championship 2013

If you were following us a few months back you would have seen our unbelievable week at the WGC Accenture Match Play’s. So the Volvo World Match Play is a tournament we have been looking forward to for some time now. That week we had an 80/1 accumulator come in and 3 out of 4 win on a lucky15. So we will be giving you some interesting bets this week in hope of a repeat performance.

The Format

This is different to the WGC Accenture version and is not too dissimilar to the Champions League seen in football. For the first 2 days we will have 8 groups of 3 players, and these 3 players will all play each other. The top 2 of each group will then qualify into straight knock-out rounds starting Saturday morning. The markets we will be focusing on will be individual matches, group winners and of course outright.

The Draw

Ballesteros Group Gabriellson Group Woosnam Group

Graeme McDowell Sir Ian Poulter Branden Grace

Chris Wood Thongchai Jaidee Nicolas Colsaerts

Stephen Gallagher Thomas Aiken Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Palmer Group Larson Group Norman Group

Peter Hanson Bo Van Pelt Henrik Stenson

George Coetzee Richard Sterne Franceso Molinari

Shane Lowry Geoff Ogilvy Felipe Aguilar

McCormack Group Player Group

Thorbjorn Olsesen Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano

Carl Pettersson Jamie Donaldson

Scott Jamieson Brett Rumford

The Course

This is the first year it has been played on the beautiful Gary Player designed Thracian Cliffs Course in Bulgaria. It is a controversial location for one of golf’s most prestigious events and one which is a “geographical area of interest” for its sponsors. Bulgaria after all are not known for their golfing exploits or players. But one thing we will say, this is a great course! Set against the Black Sea, the course is playing 7,291 yards this week.

It seems a lot of the courses we have spoken about of late are ones where accuracy is crucial, and this is no different. 8 of the holes run alongside the Black Sea which means wind will definitely come into play whilst the prospect of going into water will loom large. The fairways are average size with lots of bunkers providing food for thought for the players off the tee. The 9^th tee is the feature hole, a small island that is built in the sea, not too dissimilar to the 17^th at TPC Sawgrass.

How beautiful is that!

But if we are very honest, the course will not play a huge factor for the winner this week. Match play is all about the mind-set of the golfer and how they can handle the pressure of going head to head against their opponent. Once you get deep into the knockout stages, it will boil down to who can hold their nerve, and we have a few players in mind that can do just that!

What you will also find with match play is that the odds are not attractive. So we will provide you with our fancied players, but then also give you a few accumulators where you will find more value!

Picks

Sir Ian Poulter (15/2 Various)

Mr Ryder Cup. Mr Match Play. Sir Ian Poulter

As you can tell, we like Ian Poulter at DownThe18th, a lot. If there is one man in the world you would want in match play, it is the Englishman. We could talk all day about what he has achieved in this format, and we will. Ian reached the 3^rd place play-off in the last match play event, the WGC Accenture (Of course we backed him that week). Before that, there was the small matter of the 2012 Ryder Cup where Poulter single-handedly stole the show. He won all of his matches and his inspiration alone pulled Team Europe through. His Ryder Cup history is incredible. 2004 was his first appearance for Europe and they came out on top, with Poulter getting the winning points. 2008 Europe lost, but Poulter was top points scorer for either side. And then 2010 saw Europe regain the title and of course Ian was part of it, winning 3 of his 4 matches.

He won this tournament 2 years ago in Spain, and then finished 9^th the year after. As for the WGC, he won that too in 2010. So his credentials can’t be questioned. As for his stroke play performances this year, he has not been at his best! But Ian openly admits this format is where he thrives and we are sure he will be very involved this week! And the course is one for accuracy, which Ian will certainly give you a lot of. We are rooting for Sir Ian this week.

Graeme McDowell (8/1 Various)

Come on G Mac!

McDowell is another player who has the perfect mentality for this format. He reached the quarter finals of the WGC tournament in February when his form was very average, losing to 3^rd place man Jason Day. His Ryder Cup involvement cannot be ignored either, being part of Europe’s 2010 and 2012 winning teams. He has won 50% of his matches in Ryder Cup history and more importantly, only ever lost 1 singles match. So he knows how to avoid that losing taste. He has also played part in other match play team events, winning the Seve Trophy in 05 and 09, and the Royal Trophy in 06.

In the Tavistock Cup a few weeks back, McDowell’s team Lake Nona came 2^nd place where he also came 2^nd in the individual standings to Webb Simpson and won closest to the pin on hole 5. Very impressive match play statistics from the Irishman. His stroke play form is not bad either, Graeme picked up the PGA RBC Heritage title 3 weeks ago on a course reliant on accuracy. Ironically he won that via a play-off against Webb Simpson, another indication of his match play talent! Would be nice to see a Poulter-G Mac final this week

Nicolas Colsaerts (10/1 Bet365)

‘The Belgian Bomber’

Defending champion Colsaerts will have every reason to think he has a chance this week. He started off 2013 very poorly but has started to show glimpses of what we all know he can do in recent weeks. His T8 at the Zurich Classic a month ago showed that ‘The Belgian Bomber’ is back playing great golf. Like Poulter, Colsaerts seems to be one of those players who really enjoy match play style events. In his two appearances here so far, he as finished 3^rd in 2011 and then of course 1^st last year. We have to mention his involvement in last year’s Ryder Cup, with his performance on day 1 arguably keeping Europe alive. Colsaerts carded 8 birdies and 1 eagle as his partner Lee Westwood watched and admired whilst Belgian claimed Europe’s only point on the afternoon of day 1. A point which proved vital in the Miracle at Medinah. Nicolas will be an formidable opponent for anyone with him being arguably the biggest hitter in golf, driving it comfortably over 300 yards every time. This has also helped him reach 25^th in GIR on the PGA Tour, a statistic that is crucial to any match play event. Watch out for him this week.

Henrik Stenson (8/1 Various)

The Swede is on fire right now

The only thing that would put you off the Swede this week is his intense involvement in the last day of the Players Championship. Other than that, Henrik has all the tools to win this thing comfortably. He has always been regarded as a potential major winner and it is because of the form he finds himself in right now. Like Colsaerts, Henrik is one of the biggest hitters in the game and has combined this recently with pin point accuracy too! A deadly combination. 1^st in GIR and 2^nd in driving accuracy on the PGA Tour is amazing. If he can bring that to Bulgaria this week, it is hard to see anyone beating him. He is also 1^st in total driving, and a lot of the pressure in match play comes from the tee, so the Swede should be just fine. As we have mentioned his form is incredible without actually grabbing a win, 8^th, 2^nd, 18^th, MC and 5^th have been his last few performances.

As for match play, he is pretty impressive in that format too. The Swede finished 3^rd at this in 07 and then 9^th in 09. He also won the WGC Accenture Match Play in 07, and that year his form was very similar to this! He also represented Europe in the 2008 Ryder cup winning side. As long as he can handle the flight from America, Stenson will go close this week.

Also a quick mention must go to Geoff Ogilvy this week, his stroke play form has not been great but he is definitely a guy who enjoys match play! He is 2 time winner of the WGC Accenture and also reached the final in 07, losing to Stenson. His win at the 06 US Open proves he is one of the biggest golfers in the field this week and the only other major winner alongside McDowell.

Group Winner Betting Accumulators

Eight-fold (700/1 Coral)

Graeme McDowell - Ian Poulter - Nicolas Colsaerts - Henrik Stenson - Thorbjorn Olesen - Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano - Geoff Ogilvy - Peter Hanson

Six-fold (97/1 Coral)

Graeme McDowell - Ian Poulter - Nicolas Colsaerts - Henrik Stenson - Thorbjorn Olesen - Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano

Four-fold (18/1 Coral)

Graeme McDowell - Ian Poulter - Nicolas Colsaerts - Henrik Stenson

Day 3 Match Win Accumulator

Six-fold (50/1 Coral)

Henrik Stenson – Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano - Ian Poulter - Branden Grace - Peter Hanson – Graeme McDowell

May 14, 2013 by downthe18th

HP Byron Nelson Championship 2013

The Texan swing begins at the TPC Four Seasons this week as a field without Tiger will attempt to hit the ground running as we enter the first stages on the road to the US Open. The course is widely regarded as a masterpiece after its 2008 remodel, featuring large undulating greens, several ponds, high and strategically placed bunkers and tight tree-lined fairways. All these components add together to make a ball striker’s paradise and the best “plotters” will end up conquering come Sunday. It is a 7,166-yard par 70 that will test the abilities of the pros to the extreme. You are looking for driving accuracy, GIR and someone with a hot putter, but the most accurate with an iron, attacking pins will have the best chance. Jason Dufner won last year hitting over 80% of the greens and he was 1^st in proximity to the hole. It is forecast that there will be winds between 15 – 20 mph, which will heavily effect the scoring and make conditions even tougher, so birdies will be hard to come by!

TPC Four Seasons

Our disappointing run has continued after horrendous conditions cost us last week (Westwood, Johnson etc) but all we can do is keep plugging away as our purple patch must surely be over!

Charl Schwartzel (22/1 StanJames)

Hopefully Charl can finally produce for us!

Schwartzel is one of those players we have backed a few times this year and he has produced absolutely nothing for us. He is still one of our favourite players on tour and we are so sure this is the week he will give us a return. He is too good not to. It has been a very solid season for the South African, yet to miss a cut, with the lowest finish of T55 at The Players last week. He may not have recorded a top 10 since Malaysia at the end of March, but this is a course that seems to have been built for him, which makes it surprising he has yet to play here. He is one of the best strikers of the ball on tour and he has the ability to overcome and conditions that are in front of him. He stands at 54^th for ball striking, 70^th for GIR (fallen since the Players) 6^th in birdie or better % from the fairway and 4^th in going for the green – you will need to be courageous on this course in order to find the birdies and Schwartzel is what we would call an aggressive tactician. More importantly he is very consistent with the short stick. There will be many long putts on such large greens and he is 4^th in putting from outside 20 ft, which could prove vital, whilst he is 1^st for 3-putt avoidance and 43^rd for putts per round. This combination of stats only underlines what we already knew but we hope he finally makes us all proud and gets his first PGA victory of the year.

Marc Leishman (25/1 PaddyPower)

The Australian has been in outstanding form of late, recording 3 top 10s in a row, started off by that courageous performance at Augusta. In those 12 rounds he has only hit over par once and looks to be striking the ball with real elegance at the moment. This seems like the perfect moment to jump on the Leishman bandwagon because it is also a course he has played well at in the past. T3 last year when he shot a 65 and 66 to finish only 2 shots off Dufner, whilst a 63 in 2009 was enough for a T8 – astonishingly he didn’t even shoot over par in those four rounds, eventual winner Sabbatini was just very consistent. When you think how high his confidence will be going into the first day, he must be sure of producing a quality display. Stats wise he does not impress but his early season form was beyond woeful, so it is in no way a true reflection of how he is playing. Trust us.

Ryan Palmer (28/1 Coral)

Palmer did well at the Players last week

Another one of our favourite players, Palmer has had an up and down season so far, but is slowly coming into the sort of form that makes him a potent threat in any tournament. After some rough showings in February, he has found his feet after a T15 at the Valero Texas Open, which proves he enjoys it in the state and a T5 last week at The Players. Whilst his form here went from 4 missed cuts in a row to a 2^nd in 2011 and T9 last year, where he lead from the front after day 1 but two mediocre rounds after put pay to a challenge for the win. And in 2011 he dug deep in horrendous conditions only to lose out in a playoff to Keegan Bradley. If the weather is anywhere near like it was 2 years ago, you would fancy Palmer to battle hard and still be one of the front runners. He is also 17^th for ball striking, 35^th for GIR, 66^th for proximity to the hole and 5^th in birdie or better % from the fairway, which is a lethal combination for this course. He often attacks greens and has no fear in playing his shots, lying 7^th in going for the green and when he finally gets onto the dancefloor (what a stupid term that is by the way) he has the capabilities to sink putts. 25^th in putting outside 25 ft, 53^rd puts per round and 34^th for 3-putt avoidance. If the course was not built for Schwartzel, then it CERTAINLY was for Palmer.

Ken Duke (100/1 various)

Although Ken Duke may look like your dad playing in the Sunday medals, he is a golfer who has plugged away on the PGA tour since turning pro in 1994. With 4 professional wins, Duke will be going into this week knowing it is a course he is suited to and has performed well at in the past. If it weren’t for a 72 on the Saturday last year, he could have challenged the leaders, eventually finishing T7, whilst a similar 73 in 2007 hampered a push for another T7 finish. He may have missed two cuts on the bounce, but as we have seen so many times on tour this year, anything can happen and pretty much anyone can win, whatever form. (Step up Mr.Streelman) He did have a T8 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, with a T18 at the RBC Heritage, both of which are similar tracks. Basically “our dad” loves playing tight and tough courses and his stats prove this – 1^st in driving accuracy, 58^th in ball striking and 4^th in proximity to the hole. Whilst his putting stats do not scream at you, they are very respectable – 74^th in putting from outside 20 ft and 33^rd in 3-putt avoidance. All in all at high odds it would only seem right to save the money you would have put in the Jukebox and dabble on the Duke himself. Duke of DownThe18th we hope he will be…(what a crime it is for two puns one sentence after the other. We are only Dukeing… Awful)

Henrik Norlander (150/1 various)

When we first looked at this tournament we took an interest to the young Swede at odds of 200/1, but he has since come in for a bit of money, which is a shame, but shows that we are not the only ones keeping our eye on him. The PGA tour rookie hard a poor start to the season but has since gone on to make 5 cuts in a row and record a T15 in New Orleans and a T16 at the Wells Fargo in his recent 2 outings. We first properly noticed him when he shot 65 at the Zurich Classic and although he finished outside the top 10, his ball striking did not look out of place amongst fine company. We are sure he has a bright future in the game but with all the young Americans stealing the spotlight this year, Norlander could definitely upset the applecart and prove his worth this week. He is 9^th for ball striking and 17^th for GIR, whilst his 89^th in driving accuracy is excellent considering his horror early season form. He is a real talent with his irons and has no fear attacking the pins, lying 17^th in going for the greens and once on the surface, he has the ability from long range. 57^th in putting from outside 20 ft and 50^th from outside 25 ft – there will definitely be some long putts and he will not be afraid of them. Once again with high odds, a tipple worth thinking strongly about.

Great statistics going into this week for Norlander

May 8, 2013 by downthe18th

The Players Championship 2013

The calendar seems to fly by at this part of the season, only just has the Masters finished and now we’re off to the tournament known as golf’s 5^th Major, The Players Championship. This is certainly a trophy everyone in the field will want in their cabinets. It will be really interesting to see how the big stars perform this week, with most of them having pretty poor form here over the past few years. Rory Mcilroy has never made a cut here while Tiger has only 1 top 10 here since his win back in 2001!

The iconic 17th at TPC Sawgrass

Played at the famous TPC Sawgrass, this is without doubt one of the toughest courses on the tour and will examine every part of your game. Being the Stadium course, expect there to be a great atmosphere this week, especially on the signature 17^th island hole. This is a real beauty from course designer Pete Dye. His courses are very tricky and golfers who get to grips with his many courses will have a chance around here this week. PGA Tour has released an interesting article on who has performed well on Pete Dye courses. You will see our picks this week have all made their way onto it.

http://www.pgatour.com/news/2012/08/07/dye-courses-best-players.html

Sawgrass plays 7,215 and although it is fairly long, driving it far does not seem to help round here. The ‘ball strikers’ out there have prevailed over the past few years. Green in regulation, driving accuracy and most importantly scrambling will be key this week. The shots will be picked up around the greens. Getting up and down is vital. The rain has been hard on the course for a few weeks now, which will make the course a little easier and again favor the accurate players out there.

It is also interesting to know that only 2 players have ever won here more than once, which shows what a test it is. Despite this, course experience will be crucial as it is definitely one you need to learn your way around. Kuchar, Choi, Clark, Garcia and Mickelson have all played 8 times or more around here before claiming their titles.

Most bookmakers are paying 6 places this week too, so be sure to get involved on that.

Luke Donald (20/1 Paddy Power)

Luke’s short game will prove vital this week

This is the first time we have backed Luke Donald this year and he is arguably the only ‘big name’ this week that has had really consistent finishes over the past few years. His record here reads 6^th, 4^th, 26^th, 37^th, 27^th and 16^th. With finishes like that, it does appear Donald has cracked this course and all he needs is that elusive win. The Englishman ranks 14^th in stroke average around Pete Dye courses which shows his game suits these courses, with putting especially excelling on the Bermuda Greens. His current form is not bad either, even though his name has not been branded about as much as it was last year. Luke has 3 top six finishes in his last 8 tournaments and his last appearance was a 3^rd in the RBC Heritage where he definitely looked in great shape. Even without looking at statistics, we all know Luke’s short game is incredible and we have already stated how important scrambling will be. He is in fact 17^th on the PGA Tour in scrambling in 2013. It’s a shame to think he might not win a major, but with a major title still eluding him, these are the events Luke will want to prove himself in.

Last 7 ‘Big Tournament’ Performances

The Masters	WGC Cadillac	WGC Matchplay	PGA Champs	WGC Bridgestone	The Open	U.S Open
T25	T43	R32	T32	T8	T5	MC

Last 5 Pete Dye Course Performances

Zurich Classic	RBC Heritage	BMW Champs	PGA Champs	Players Champs
-	T3	T28	T32	6

Jason Day (45/1 Stan James)

After his performance at Augusta, can he find that elusive win?

How Jason Day has not claimed one of the `big´ tournament victories yet is beyond remarkable. His record in the majors and WGC events are outstanding and it is only a short matter of time before he finally earns a rightful place as one of the top, top players. He has come 2^nd at both The Masters and US Open, whilst also finishing at 4^th at the Bridgestone Invitational in 2011. And this year he has really pushed on once again, not missing a cut all season, finding 3 top 10s and his performances in the 3 big tournaments have been superb. T3 at Augusta a few weeks ago, where he played incredible golf but for a poor few holes on Saturday, he could have easily won and in the WGC Matchplay he breezed into the Quarter-Finals only to come up against a supreme Matt Kuchar, eventually finishing 3^rd. Finally, in the WGC Cadillac, he finished a respectable T33 and when you think he shot a 74 and 75 that is impressive. Bare in mind Day is only 25, for him to be achieving what he has is a major sign that this is a guy on the verge of a big success and as Kuchar did last year, winning The Players would the most obvious progression. He has come 6^th at Sawgrass as well, not shooting over par in the four rounds in 2011, which proves he can adapt to the challenge it requires. When he is playing to the top of his ability, his ball striking is formidable and he can hit it very far. 30^th for total driving and 14^th for driving distance could be lethal on this course, but he must hit it straight. He has shown how he can play from the rough when he is a bit wayward, 26^th in GIR from other than fairway and 24^th in scrambling, whilst his bunker play at Augusta proved to the world his ability from the beaches. He is currently 4^th in sand save % and when the ball is finally on the dance floor, his putting is up there with the best, 25^th in strokes gained putting and 33^rd for birdie or better conversion. The Australian has all the attributes to have another big week and this really could be the one he finally wins..

Last 7 ‘Big Tournament’ Performances

The Masters	WGC Cadillac	WGC Matchplay	PGA Champs	WGC Bridgestone	The Open	U.S Open
3	T33	3	MC	T29	-	T59

Last 5 Pete Dye Course Performances

Zurich Classic	RBC Heritage	BMW Champs	PGA Champs	Players Champs
-	T30	-	MC	MC

Lee Westwood (25/ Various)

Please putt well this week Lee. Please!

We know very well that we are the ones who have said on a number of occasions, do not back Westwood. It is a painful week when you watch him get on the green, most likely for 2 and then putt his way to a double bogey. But something just feels very different coming into The Players, this is a man who has shown he is on a mission. Moving to America could be thought of as a desperate attempt in his last chance saloon, but if you have been watching the Englishman closely, there is evidence something is changing. Remarkably his putting has actually been a lot better and his irons have let him down! He was T8 at The Masters this year and produced relatively consistent golf but it is his record in all the big tournaments that make you realise it is a joke he has not won any yet. His best finish in every major, WGC and Players is no worse than 4^th… And with ball striking needed to win here, an in-form Westwood has to be in with a shout to finally get one of the big ones. Surely. 10^th in total driving, 42^nd in driving accuracy, 8^th in scrambling, 8^th in sand save % and even more remarkably 52^nd in 3-putt avoidance (where he didn’t 3 putt at Augusta all week!) point towards the Englishman getting himself up the leaderboard. Whilst he is currently one of the form men in golf, recording 3 top 10s in a row and in 4 out of his last 6. That move to States may not have brought him The Masters but could it bring the Players? Come on Lee, what a story it would be!

Last 7 ‘Big Tournament’ Performances

The Masters	WGC Cadillac	WGC Matchplay	PGA Champs	WGC Bridgestone	The Open	U.S Open
T8	T25	R64	MC	70	T45	T10

Last 5 Pete Dye Course Performances

Zurich Classic	RBC Heritage	BMW Champs	PGA Champs	Players Champs
-	-	T2	MC	T61

Bo Van Pelt (50/1 Various)

Go Bo!

With a lot of the bigger names less fancied this week, it is people like Van Pelt who have a real opportunity. He has started to hit a bit of form and his 6^th last week in the Wells Fargo was his first top 10 of the season. He was 13^th in total driving and 12^th in strokes gained putting for the week, which is promising. When Bo plays well here, he is a one who will always get you a top 10. 7^th last year, 4^th in 2010 and 8^th in 2006 are some of his impressive finishes. It appears he has definitely peaked at the right time for this, 20^th at Augusta cannot be overlooked. Bo has a record of playing well around similar courses; the American is sitting 4^th in the Pete Dye course stroke averages. He is traditionally a slow starter to the season and he will be looking to kick start his year with a very good run here.

Last 7 ‘Big Tournament’ Performances

The Masters	WGC Cadillac	WGC Matchplay	PGA Champs	WGC Bridgestone	The Open	U.S Open
T20	T39	R32	T18	T8	MC	T59

Last 5 Pete Dye Course Performances

Zurich Classic	RBC Heritage	BMW Champs	PGA Champs	Players Champs
-	MDF	T10	T18	T7

Zach Johnson (70/1 Stan James)

Hoping for a Hollywood performance from Zach this week

You can see a bit of a trend with the players we are picking, and Johnson caps it off for us. Accurate players who are not the longest off the tee. The American caught our eye last week in the first couple of rounds at the Wells Fargo. He tailed off on the final two days but initially his short game looked back to its best and his accuracy was there for all to see. Current form is the only thing that would put you off Johnson but he has been playing some good stuff, so don’t let that worry you. His course form on the other hand is one of the best in the field and it’s why we can’t ignore him. 2^nd, 12^th, 22^nd, 32^nd, MC, 16^th have been his last few performances at Sawgrass. Course form will be a huge factor this week. The Masters win in 07’ proves how his length off the tee does not affect him and we feel really confident backing someone who relies on accuracy, around this course. Zach also ranks 13^th in Pete Dye scoring average, so his ability on these courses cannot be questioned. He also looks like Joaquin Phoenix, which helps…

Last 7 ‘Big Tournament’ Performances

The Masters	WGC Cadillac	WGC Matchplay	PGA Champs	WGC Bridgestone	The Open	U.S Open
T35	T47	R64	70	T40	T9	T41

Last 5 Pete Dye Course Performances

Zurich Classic	RBC Heritage	BMW Champs	PGA Champs	Players Champs
-	T48	T12	70	T2

Fredrik Jacobson (125/1 StanJames)

A great outside bet this week

The big Swede has caught our attention many times this season, fast becoming one of our favourite golfers on tour. His charisma and calmness on the greens is a joy to watch and you are always confident that if he can drive well, the rest of his game will fall into place. 15^th in proximity to the hole and 8^th in par 4 performance will stand him in good stead but his putting is where the stats shout out at you. 4^th in strokes gained putting, 13^th birdie or better conversion, 4^th total putting and 47^th for 3-putt avoidance. The man LOVES his short stick. Whilst his form has certainly been impressive this season, finishing no lower than 25^th in his last 7 tournaments, including 3 top 10s. He is another one of these `top´ players who is yet to win one of the flagship tournaments, but he has shown talent on Pete Dye courses. 10^th here in 2010 and won at River Highlands in 2011, so when you think his odds are as high as 125/1 it would be foolish not to get involved.

Last 7 ‘Big Tournament’ Performances

The Masters	WGC Cadillac	WGC Matchplay	PGA Champs	WGC Bridgestone	The Open	U.S Open
T25	T16	R16	T36	T50	T54	T15

Last 5 Pete Dye Course Performances

Zurich Classic	RBC Heritage	BMW Champs	PGA Champs	Players Champs
-	-	-	T32	MC

Special mention must go to Stewart Cink at 135/1, who was incredibly close to getting our 6^th and final pick. Considering his fall from grace for several years, the American has started playing the sort of golf that propelled him inside the top 10 in the word. He also has the 2^nd most wins, (4) 6^th for stroke average and 13^th for most top 25s on Pete Dye courses since 1983…If you have some spare change or a spare slot in your fantasy team, throw the kitchen Cink at Stewart…

April 30, 2013 by downthe18th

PGA Tour Week 18

Wells Fargo Championship

The PGA Tour moves to North Carolina this week for the Wells Fargo Championship at The Quail Hollow Club – a course that has hosted this tournament since 2003. It is a par 72 7,440 yard course with 4 testing par 5’s and the infamous final stretch of holes otherwise known as “The Green Mile”. Obviously with the long yardage, there is the temptation to look at big hitters, but there are tight tree-lined fairways meaning there is a real importance on accuracy as well. As always good GIR will be a necessity but it is on the greens where the winner will emerge. Last year Rickie Fowler was super with his putter, as was Lucas Glover in 2011 and Rory McIlroy in 2010. Over 60 bunkers and water comes into play over four holes, so scrambling could also be important.

The course has actually had a bit of an overhaul recently after officials re-seeded the 8^th and 10^th greens because of an apparent lack of adequate grass cover. Therefore these two greens will be slightly unknown commodities for the golfers to attack. And it will all change again next year as there are plans to rebuild the infamous 16^th and redesign the 17^th green. Intriguing to say the least.

As for the field it is arguably a lot stronger than last week with 10 of the worlds top 25 players embark on the George Cobb designed course. Rickie Fowler will be fighting to defend his only PGA title and expect him to be feisty, but all the cameras will be on the young Northern Irishman as he arrives to a place he has had mixed fortunes at, producing some of his best golf and missing cuts. It is going to be a cracking week.

Rory McIlroy (10/1 Ladbrokes)

McIlroy winning here in 2010. More of that fist pumping this week please

We never like seeing anyone tipping up the favourite in golf because it usually means either Tiger, Rory, Phil or someone who has somehow found their way into criminal odds. But this week we are sucking up our pride and rooting for the worlds number 2 golfer, Mr.McIlroy.

He is obviously very difficult to ignore and when we saw his price out at 10s from Ladbrokes (very crafty by the way, as most other odds are shorter than everywhere else) we thought we would take a punt for the Northern Irishman to win outright. It is common knowledge that his form was deeper than below par at the beginning of the season, but there have been signs of the talent that propelled him to number 1 over recent weeks.

We have not seen him since The Masters 2 weeks ago where he ended T25 and considering he shot a 76 on Saturday it was a respectable finish. He did end his 4 days at Augusta with a 69 which will give him confidence going into this week, especially as it is a course where he has shown sublime poise in the past. He won it in 2010 after a record breaking 62 on the Sunday and was only defeated in a playoff last year by Rickie Fowler. If we have still not persuaded you then we are sure his stats will sway you in his direction. Averaging over 310 yards off the tee (5^th in the rankings), 15^th for GIR, 34^th strokes gained putting, 17^th scoring average, 7^th birdie or better conversion rate and 5^th GIR from 200+ yards. If that doesn’t make you think McIlroy is the perfect man for this tournament, we don’t know what will.

Nick Watney (33/1 Coral)

We hope to see Watney eying up more greens this week

Watney has had a relatively consistent season to date but is yet to really excel and push himself for a potential title going into Sunday. But his recent form has started to excite after a T13 at Augusta and T15 last week in New Orleans. In those collective 8 rounds, 6 of them were under 70 and at The Zurich Classic he shot 4 69s. He will therefore be going into a tournament where he has only missed one cut and came 8^th last year, with great confidence. He was actually leading going into the weekend after a stunning –8 64, but trailed off with no round below par. His game as a whole is looking great and he is averaging over 296 yards off the tee (36^th on tour) meaning he can attack the yardage with ease. Whilst he was 48^th for driving accuracy before the 1^st round 78 at The Masters, which has now pushed him to 138^th but he is well known as an accurate driver. His length and accuracy could be a powerful advantage. He is also 8^th in GIR proving how potent he could be tee to green. It is on the greens where he will need to improve but he has already shown what he can do on this course and with the form he is showing it could be a great week for the American.

Lucas Glover (66/1 Coral)

Glover celebrating his win here in 2011 with his mother. A lovely mothers day present!

Glover was leading going into the weekend last week after a 65 and a 67 but he was unable to shoot low enough again to compete with the scintillating Billy Horschel. It was great to see the Carolina born golfer play well again after an inconsistent season by his high standards. It ended as his 2^nd T4 of the year, following on from The Honda Classic earlier in the season. He will take that confidence into this week at an event he has had plenty of success at before. He won here in 2011,2^nd in 2009 and 4^th in 2006. When he claimed the title he had missed 3 cuts in a row before the tournament, so the fact he played FAR better this year, he could really attack the leaderboard once again. He is 10^th for total driving on tour (56^th driving distance and 46^th driving accuracy), which is a very deadly combination. Whilst he is in the top 30 for all GIR stats from 200 yards + and due to the length of the course this is the sort of range he will be hitting into the greens. There is no reason Glover cant improve on last week and win in his home state once again.

Richard H Lee (125/1 PaddyPower)

All the talk has been about the young stars this year who have lit up the tour and excited the galleries. Horschel, Russel Henley, Jordan Spieth, the list could go on. But one name has crept under the radar in the last month or so and it may well be this week where he puts his name in the spotlight.

Richard H Lee has only been on the PGA Tour for 2 years after regaining his card via qualifying school last year. Although he had a turbulent start to the season, withdrawing from The Sony Open and missing two cuts, he did record a T10 the Humana Challenge and a T12 at Pebble Beach. But it the last 3 weeks where his finishes have been the most consistent of his career, proving how there could be a real charge in Carolina. 13^th at the Valero Open, T9 at the RBC Heritage and T21 last week. His confidence will be high especially as he finished 40^th here last year when he was playing nowhere near as well as he is now.

He is currently 10^th for driving accuracy and 19^th for GIR, so from tee to green he has the abilities to play on any sort of course and he is now averaging over 286 yards which should be long enough to challenge this week. The fact that he is 9^th for total putting and 19^th strokes gained putting is more than a bonus and of all our picks there is no one who is as consistent across the board as the American. If he is in need to scramble a par, he is more than capable, lying in 36^th for scrambling. At such high odds, it seems foolish not to stake your hard earned cash, especially as our 4^th placed picks have got us the most returns this year…

Martin Flores (250/1 Coral)

Big hitting Texan could prove value for money

With McIlroy at such low odds, it seemed like fate that we stumbled across Texan stalwart Martin Flores. His final round 68 at the Valero Texas Open was a joy to behold and it put him on our radar, eventually finishing T10. We know he missed the cut last week, but there has to be reasons why the bookmakers priced him at 250/1! He was T21 last year here and there should be confidence from that performance in Texas as he embarks upon Carolina. He averages over 295 yards off the tee and lies in 16^th for GIR 200-225 yards. His GIR is incredibly consistent between 175-225 yards, so he could really attack the greens with his long hitting abilities. At this sort of price, a cheeky punt would certainly not hurt!

DownThe18th

Golf Betting and Opinions from a Young Perspective

BMW PGA Championship 2013

US Open 2013 Preview

Volvo World Match Play Championship 2013

HP Byron Nelson Championship 2013

The Players Championship 2013

PGA Tour Week 18

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